Britain had broken diplomatic ties with Iran after attacks on their embassy there and the US hasn't had diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic since Americans were taken hostage there in 1979.
If other western countries begin to close their Iranian embassies, the odds of a military strike on Iran before the US election in November will increase substantially.
Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird made the announcement Friday morning that diplomatic relations between Canada and Iran have been suspended. He said all Canadian diplomatic staff have left Iran, and Iranian diplomats in Ottawa have been instructed to leave within five days.
“Canada has closed its embassy in Iran, effective immediately, and declared personae non gratae all remaining Iranian diplomats in Canada,” Baird said in a statement. Canada’s position on the regime in Iran is well known. Canada views the Government of Iran as the most significant threat to global peace and security in the world today.”
A military strike by whom, precisely?
ReplyDeleteIf the United States does it during a campaign, it's virtual certainty that the Republicans will accuse the Administration of doing it for political reasons, even though they've been demanding it from the second they stopped being responsible for foreign and military policy.
If the Israelis do it on their own, the mission is almost certain to fail. Almost no one thinks that they can pull it off on their own, and an increasing number of retired military and intelligence officials have joined the choir.
More importantly, Jerusalem is insane if they go ahead in the middle of an American presidential campaign, especially when Tehran would almost certainly retaliate against U.S forces in Afghanistan.
No, I don't think there's any evidence of anything happening before November. In fact, I doubt that there's going to be a military strike at all.
Depending on how the election campaign goes, I wouldn't rule out a US strike. Obama's Administration doesn't want a nuclear Iran. On their end, the Israelis may well use the opportunity before November, knowing the Obama will have no choice but to back them or the Republicans will make Obama look hopelessly weak.
ReplyDeleteYou still haven't addressed the likely "Wag the Dog" response from the GOP about such a strike. Christ, Clinton got that in '98 when he bombed both Afghanistan and Iraq.
ReplyDeletePolitics has made effective foreign and military policy almost impossible in an election year and everybody knows it, including the Israelis.
As for dragging the United States into a war during an election year, I don't think that Netanyahu is quite that dumb.
If a right-wing Israeli government can do that to a liberal American government, future Republican presidents have to know that they can do that to them, as well. And I'm sure that they've read the Reagan Diaries as thoroughly as I have.
If Netanyahu endangers Israel's relationship with the United States, he endangers Israel itself. Without American money, Israel is left with the stark choice between having a civil society or a self-defence capability. On it's own, it can't have both.
Yeah, but Skippy, you remember what was happening with Clinton for that "wag the dog" scenario. The term "Monica missiles" rings a bell, I'm sure.
ReplyDeleteI don't know which way this is going to go, but Iran's apocalyptic 12th Imam-believing lunatics with nukes is not something that Israel or the US wants. For that matter, though they're less public about it, neither does Saudi Arabia, Qatar or most of the Gulf States. In any case, it's not going to be a ground war - you might be looking at sustained bombing of IRGC installations.
Oh, I know exactly what was gong on. And, as a matter of fact, I was one of the people screaming about "the blowjob bombings" at the time. Trust me, I'm an expert on that.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, that was supposed to have all gone out the window after 9/11, right? Clinton was right and we were wrong. Bush even used the impeachment bombings as a predicate for the war in Iraq.
All that aside, can you name a country that has really wanted nukes that was forcibly denied them? I can't.
And chances are that Iran isn't going to be the first. So I'm not sure that starting a war in a country that's bigger than Iraq and Afghanistan combined is going to accomplish anything.
You know,Monica is actually not looking half-bad these days
ReplyDeleteShe always had a cute face, Besides, she's four years younger than I am,a legendary suck-machine and highly unwilling to talk to the government about her liaisons.
ReplyDeleteHow can you go wrong with her? I still think that she's one of the greatest girls of all time!