The Eye on a Crazy Planet Canadian Election Prediction

I've been challenged by a friend to go on the record, so, always up for a challenge, I will.

And I won't play it safe, I'm going to go out on a limb and present what I think are the 3 most likely outcomes of the election set to being in a few hours.

• I think the most probable result is that we will have a slim Conservative majority, with the Liberals, also by a slim margin, holding on to their Official Opposition status.

Despite the NDP polling better than the Liberals, our electoral system has us voting for local candidates instead of direct Executive elections as in the US. Local Liberal candidates are generally much stronger than the many wankers in the NDP. Dipper support is softer than an NDP leader after a happy ending. That's my # 1 scenario.

• The next possibility is the Conservatives win the most seats but not enough for a majority. In that case, it's probable that the NDP will be the Official Opposition. This is a tough call, but my guess is that in that event, it becomes an NDP-led minority. It won't last long and Jack Layton will become the socialist Joe Clark. His government will last months at the most and he'll go down to defeat to a Conservative majority within a year.

• And the other possibility I'd anticipate is that if the Conservatives get a minority which is only one or two seats short of a majority, a deal will be done with some Blue Whigs to cross the floor, and we'll see a negotiated Tory majority. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tories have sounded out a few right-leaning Liberals for that already.

There it is. Get your crow ready in case I have to eat it in a pie on May 3.

ADDENDUM: I think it's 50/50 whether Ignatieff loses his seat in Etobicoke-Lakeshore to Conservative Bernard Trottier. I think it's 99.9% likely that Iggy won't be leading the Liberals by this time next year.