The wind is blowing in too many directions for me to even bother to guess the outcome of the Republican primaries any more, other than to make the bold prediction that, under no circumstances, will Ron Paul be the winner.
As to the Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney battle, here are some facts to be taken into account:
1. Nobody outside his immediate family actually likes Mitt Romney.
2. Rick Santorum stands no chance.
3. Ron Paul is crazy. I'm not sure how that's relevant to these points, but I'm talking about all the other remaining Republican candidates and I didn't want him to feel left out.
4. Mitt has a lot of money, but he isn't going to be able to spend it in every state the way he had in Florida to smear Gingrich.
5. So far, including the Florida results, only 5% of the total delegates to the Republican convention have been allocated.
6. Mitt Romney is an uncharismatic stiff that makes Al Gore seem like a rock star by comparison.
7. If Santorum gives up his hopeless campaign, the bulk of his support would likely go to Gingrich.
8. If Santorum doesn't give up his hopeless campaign before the convention, he can turn his delegates over to Gingrich then.
9. Mitt has the GOP establishment behind him, but those Tea Party people punch above their weight in party activism and most of them are in the Gingrich camp.
10. Super Tuesday looms large and Gingrich will do well in a lot of those states.
Even though the primary battle between Gingrich and Romney seems to be exposing lots of dirty Republican linen, the benefit from the process is that it's giving the candidates an opportunity to be able to respond to attacks now instead of when the Democrats bring them up in the fall Presidential campaign. That dirt is also getting the American public familiar with the attack points, so the November election may rest less on what the Democrats say about the Republicans than how Americans feel about Obama's handling of the economy and America's place in the world.
No comments:
Post a Comment