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Thursday, September 15, 2016

Hillary Clinton Is Getting Surprisingly Little Extra Lift From Blacks and Hispanics

From The New York Times:
...Yes, demographic shifts will continue to slowly help Democrats. But Mrs. Clinton isn’t getting the same leaps in support and turnout among nonwhite voters that let Mr. Obama grow the Democratic coalition as much as he did.

On average, Mrs. Clinton leads among Hispanic voters by almost the exact same amount that Mr. Obama did in pre-election polls in 2012.

This is lost in many articles that cherry-pick the most shockingly pro-Clinton results. The results that don’t show her doing so well — like a Pew poll showing her leading by 50 to 26 — are dismissed, even though the same pollsters four years ago showed Mr. Obama faring about as well as he ultimately did.

Another reason Mrs. Clinton’s relative weakness among nonwhite voters has been overlooked is that analysts and journalists have tended to focus on how Mr. Trump is doing worse than Mr. Romney (Mr. Trump has only 15 percent support among Hispanics compared with Mr. Romney's 27 percent in the exit polls). But they leave out that Mrs. Clinton, by the same measure, is doing worse than Mr. Obama to the same extent.

A final problem is that a handful of polls specifically targeting Latino voters tend to show Mrs. Clinton ahead by a larger margin than other surveys do. These pollsters argue that they’re a more accurate reflection of the Latino electorate. Whether this is true is beside the point: The methodology employed by these surveys has always yielded stronger results for Democrats than other surveys, including the exit polls.

As a result, comparing these polls with the exit polls tends to show Democrats gaining when, in fact, they may not be at all...
See Also:  Trump Has 5-Point Lead in Bloomberg Poll of Battleground Ohio

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